Paramount Resources Ltd. press release

Paramount Resources Ltd. Announces Second Quarter 2022 Results, Updated Guidance, Complementary Asset Acquisition and Non-Core Infrastructure Disposition

2022-08-03

TSX - Toronto Stock Exchange · Natural Gas · Oil · Natural Gas Liquids · Ethane · Canada · Corporate Finance

Canada NewsWire

CALGARY, AB , Aug. 3, 2022 /CNW/ - Paramount Resources Ltd. ("Paramount" or the "Company") (TSX: POU) is pleased to announce its second quarter 2022 financial and operating results, updated guidance, a highly complementary $68.5 million Duvernay acquisition in its Willesden Green core area and a $63.0 million non-core infrastructure disposition.

HIGHLIGHTS

Sales volumes in July 2022 averaged an estimated 92,000 Boe/d (45% liquids) as production ramped-up following major turnarounds at third-party processing facilities affecting Karr and Wapiti in the second quarter, with July exit sales volumes exceeding 100,000 Boe/d . (1)

The Company now expects second half 2022 sales volumes to average between 102,000 Boe/d and 106,000 Boe/d (46% liquids), 1,000 Boe/d higher than previous guidance. Second quarter 2022 sales volumes averaged 77,312 Boe/d (42% liquids) and were impacted by a longer-than-planned turnaround at a third-party facility affecting Karr and unplanned outages and curtailments at Wapiti.

| | _ | | (1) | In this press release, "liquids" refers to NGLs (including condensate) and oil combined, "natural gas" refers to conventional natural gas and shale gas combined, "condensate and oil" refers to condensate, light and medium crude oil and tight oil combined and "other NGLs" refers to ethane, propane and butane. See the Product Type Information section for a complete breakdown of sales volumes for applicable periods by the specific product types of shale gas, conventional natural gas, NGLs, light and medium crude oil and tight oil. See also "Oil and Gas Measures and Definitions" in the Advisories section. |

Cash from operating activities was $318.9 million ( $2.26 per basic share) in the second quarter. Adjusted funds flow was $258.3 million ( $1.83 per basic share). Free cash flow was $68.3 million ( $0.48 per basic share). (1)

Second quarter capital expenditures totaled $184.1 million and were predominantly focused on development activities at Karr and Wapiti and in the Kaybob region. Net debt was $374.0 million at June 30, 2022 , including drawings under the Company's credit facility of $231 million . Net debt does not account for the $469 million carrying value of the Company's investments in securities at June 30, 2022 . (2)

Abandonment and reclamation expenditures in the second quarter totaled $4.0 million , net of $1.3 million in funding under the Alberta Site Rehabilitation Program ("ASRP"). Following the Company's second quarter Willesden Green Duvernay acquisition, Paramount entered into a definitive agreement in July to acquire additional Duvernay lands and production directly offsetting its existing 150,000+ net acre position in the Willesden Green area of Alberta for $68.5 million in cash prior to adjustments. The acquisition will add approximately 90,000 net acres, over 200 internally estimated drilling locations and approximately 1,700 Boe/d (55% liquids) of current production to the Willesden Green core area. (3) Implied transaction metrics are approximately $39,000 / Boe/d and 3.0x cash flow. The acquisition is expected to close in the third quarter subject to customary closing conditions. Also in July, Paramount entered into a definitive agreement for the sale of certain non-core infrastructure assets for approximately $63 million in cash prior to adjustments. The disposition is expected to close in the third quarter subject to customary closing conditions. Following closing, annual operating expenses are expected to increase by approximately $7.8 million (approximately $0.20 /Boe). (4)

UPDATED 2022 GUIDANCE AND PRELIMINARY 2023 BUDGET

The Company's planned 2022 capital expenditures have been upwardly revised by $80 million at the midpoint to a range of between $600 million and $640 million. Most of the increase reflects the impact of higher than anticipated inflation. Paramount, through its Fox Drilling subsidiary, is also now budgeting $20 million in 2022 for the majority of the costs to construct a fifth super-spec walking rig that will be deployed in the Company's 2023 drilling program. The increase also reflects the pre-ordering of certain materials, particularly casing, required for the 2023 development program to ensure continued availability. Paramount remains committed to prudently managing its capital resources and has the flexibility to adjust its capital expenditure plans depending on commodity prices and other factors. The Company continues to budget $33 million of abandonment and reclamation expenditures in 2022, net of approximately $8 million in funding under the ASRP.

The Company is increasing its second half 2022 average sales volume guidance by 1,000 Boe/d to between 102,000 Boe/d and 106,000 Boe/d (46% liquids), resulting in expected annual average sale volumes of between approximately 91,000 Boe/d and 93,000 Boe/d (45% liquids). Higher forecast production at Wapiti due to well out-performance and the acquisition of production through the pending Willesden Green acquisition is anticipated to more than offset lower than previously expected production at Karr resulting from changes to the timing of bringing new wells on production. Production volumes at Wapiti are now anticipated to reach the targeted plateau of 30,000 Boe/d by the end of 2022.

| | | | (1) | Adjusted funds flow and free cash flow are capital management measures used by Paramount. Cash from operating activities per basic share, adjusted funds flow per basic share and free cash flow per basic share are supplementary financial measures. Refer to the "Specified Financial Measures" section for more information on these measures. | | (2) | Net debt is a capital management measure used by Paramount. Refer to the "Specified Financial Measures" section for more information on this measure. | | (3) | See also "Oil and Gas Measures and Definitions" in the Advisories section for additional information respecting internally estimated drilling locations. | | (4) | Based on the midpoint of forecast 2023 sales volumes of 107,500 Boe/d. |

Paramount is updating its forecast of 2022 free cash flow to approximately $600 million from $710 million to reflect updated capital spending, commodity prices, production and other assumptions. (1)

The Company's 2022 capital program, targeted net debt reduction and regular monthly dividend would remain fully funded down to an average WTI price of about US$50 /Bbl over the last two quarters of 2022. (2)

Paramount's anticipated 2023 capital expenditure budget, based on preliminary planning and current market conditions, has been upwardly revised by $115 million at the midpoint to a range of between $650 million and $700 million. The additional capital expenditures largely reflect the impact of higher inflation.

The Company continues to expect that a capital program in this range will result in 2023 average sales volumes of 105,000 Boe/d to 110,000 Boe/d (47% liquids).

Paramount is updating its estimate of 2023 free cash flow that would be expected from such a capital program to approximately $725 million from $820 million to reflect updated capital spending, commodity price and other assumptions. (3)

UPDATED FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK

The Company is updating its five-year outlook to reflect updated capital expenditure expectations, recent commodity prices and other assumptions. Paramount now anticipates cumulative free cash flow through to the end of 2026 of approximately $3.9 billion (approximately $28 per basic share (4) ), down from $4.1 billion . The Company now anticipates annual average capital expenditures of approximately $650 million (up from $550 million ) and a compound annual production growth rate of approximately 7% (unchanged) through the period. (5)

DELIVERING ON FREE CASH FLOW PRIORITIES

Paramount's free cash flow priorities continue to be: (i) the achievement of its net debt target of about $300 million and the maintenance of conservative leverage levels thereafter, (ii) shareholder returns and (iii) incremental growth.

The Company expects to achieve its net debt target of about $300 million in the fall. At this level, year-end 2022 net debt to adjusted funds flow would be less than 0.3x (6) . Unallocated free cash flows may be directed at times to reduce net debt below the $300 million target to provide further financial flexibility. Paramount has increased shareholder returns by implementing a regular monthly dividend in July 2021 of $0.02 per share and increasing it three times to $0.10 per share beginning in May 2022 . The Company also retains the flexibility to make repurchases of up to 7.6 million Common Shares under its normal course issuer bid, which was renewed in June 2022 .

| | _ | | (1) | The stated free cash flow forecast is based on the following assumptions for 2022: (i) the midpoint of forecast capital spending and production, (ii) $33 million in net abandonment and reclamation costs, (iii) $7 million in geological and geophysical expenses, (iv) realized pricing of $72.85/Boe (US$95.89/Bbl WTI, US$6.89/MMBtu NYMEX, $5.81/GJ AECO), (v) a $US/$CAD exchange rate of $0.781, (vi) royalties of $12.25/Boe, (vii) operating costs of $11.65/Boe and (viii) transportation and processing costs of $4.05/Boe. | | (2) | Assuming no changes to the other forecast assumptions for 2022. | | (3) | The revised free cash flow estimate is based on the following assumptions for 2023: (i) the midpoint of stated capital spending and production, (ii) $40 million in abandonment and reclamation costs, (iii) $7 million in geological and geophysical expenses, (iv) realized pricing of $64.45/Boe (US$84.41/Bbl WTI, US$5.68/MMBtu NYMEX, $5.06/GJ AECO), (v) a $US/$CAD exchange rate of $0.777, (vi) royalties of $11.40/Boe, (vii) operating costs of $11.20/Boe and (vii) transportation and processing costs of $3.85/Boe. | | (4) | Based on 141.2 million class A common shares ("Common Shares") outstanding at June 30, 2022. | | (5) | The five-year outlook is based on preliminary planning and current market conditions and is subject to change. The stated anticipated cumulative free cash flow is based on the following assumptions: (i) the stated annual capital expenditures and compound annual production growth; (ii) approximately $40 million in average annual abandonment and reclamation costs, (iii) approximately $7 million in annual geological and geophysical expenses, (iv) strip commodity prices and foreign exchange rates as at July 20, 2022, and (v) internal management estimates of future royalties, operating costs, transportation and processing costs and, in 2026, cash taxes. | | (6) | Assuming 2022 adjusted funds flow in excess of $1 billion. |

Incremental capital has been allocated to internal growth opportunities with the highest risk-adjusted rates of return and to accretive acquisitions in the Willesden Green Duvernay and Karr/Wapiti Montney.

AUGUST DIVIDEND

The Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per Common Share that will be payable on August 31, 2022 to shareholders of record on August 15 , 2022. The dividend will be designated as an "eligible dividend" for Canadian income tax purposes.

REVIEW OF OPERATIONS

GRANDE PRAIRIE REGION

Grande Prairie Region sales volumes and netbacks are summarized below:

| | Q2 2022 | Q1 2022 | % Change | | | | Sales volumes | | | | | | | Natural gas (MMcf/d) | 139.8 | 152.5 | (8) | | | | Condensate and oil (Bbl/d) | 22,516 | 26,048 | (14) | | | | Other NGLs (Bbl/d) | 2,914 | 3,267 | (11) | | | | Total (Boe/d) | 48,736 | 54,737 | (11) | | | | % liquids | 52 % | 54 % | | | | | Netback (1) | ($ millions) | ($/Boe) | ($ millions) | ($/Boe) | _Change in $ millions (%) _ | | Natural gas revenue (2) | 85.1 | 6.69 | 72.1 | 5.25 | 18 | | Condensate and oil revenue | 276.4 | 134.91 | 277.1 | 118.21 | – | | Other NGLs revenue | 17.1 | 64.31 | 18.1 | 61.47 | (6) | | Royalty and other revenue (3) | 1.3 | – | 10.7 | – | NM | | Petroleum and natural gas sales | 379.9 | 85.65 | 378.0 | 76.74 | 1 | | Royalties | (62.9) | (14.17) | (61.4) | (12.46) | 2 | | Operating expense | (55.9) | (12.61) | (53.7) | (10.89) | 4 | | Transportation and NGLs processing | (22.1) | (4.99) | (23.2) | (4.73) | (5) | | | 239.0 | 53.88 | 239.7 | 48.66 | – |

| (1) | "Netback" is a Non-GAAP financial measure. When presented on a $/Boe or $/Mcf basis, each of the components of Netback is a supplementary financial measure and Netback is a non-GAAP ratio. Refer to the "Specified Financial Measures" section for more information on these measures. | | (2) | Natural gas revenue presented as $/Mcf. | | (3) | Second quarter royalty and other revenue includes $1.3 million (first quarter 2022: $10.6 million) in respect of a business interruption insurance claim. Refer to Note 12 in the unaudited Interim Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements as at and for the three and six months ended June 30, 2022. | | NM means not meaningful. | |

KARR AREA

Karr sales volumes and netbacks are summarized below:

| | Q2 2022 | Q1 2022 | % Change | | | | Sales volumes | | | | | | | Natural gas (MMcf/d) | 94.6 | 113.3 | (17) | | | | Condensate and oil (Bbl/d) | 13,551 | 17,246 | (21) | | | | Other NGLs (Bbl/d) | 1,978 | 2,475 | (20) | | | | Total (Boe/d) | 31,295 | 38,611 | (19) | | | | % liquids | 50 % | 51 % | | | | | Netback (1) | ($ millions) | ($/Boe) | ($ millions) | ($/Boe) | _Change in $ millions (%) _ | | Natural gas revenue (2) | 56.3 | 6.54 | 53.1 | 5.21 | 6 | | Condensate and oil revenue | 166.0 | 134.60 | 182.4 | 117.56 | (9) | | Other NGLs revenue | 11.6 | 64.31 | 14.4 | 64.60 | (19) | | Royalty and other revenue | – | – | 0.1 | – | NM | | Petroleum and natural gas sales | 233.9 | 82.14 | 250.0 | 71.95 | (6) | | Royalties | (45.8) | (16.09) | (54.0) | (15.52) | (15) | | Operating expense | (36.0) | (12.65) | (35.2) | (10.14) | 2 | | Transportation and NGLs processing | (15.2) | (5.34) | (16.1) | (4.65) | (6) | | | 136.9 | 48.06 | 144.7 | 41.64 | (5) |

| (1) | "Netback" is a Non-GAAP financial measure. When presented on a $/Boe or $/Mcf basis, each of the components of Netback is a supplementary financial measure and Netback is a non-GAAP ratio. Refer to the "Specified Financial Measures" section for more information on these measures. | | (2) | Natural gas revenue presented as $/Mcf. | | NM means not meaningful. | |

Second quarter 2022 sales volumes at Karr averaged 31,295 Boe/d (50% liquids) compared to 38,611 Boe/d (51% liquids) in the first quarter. Karr production was shut-in for approximately three weeks in the second quarter due to planned turnarounds at two third-party midstream facilities, impacting quarterly average production by an estimated 10,300 Boe/d. Approximately 3,500 Boe/d of this impact was due to one of the turnarounds extending eight days beyond schedule.

Drilling of the remaining five wells at the twelve-well 16-17 pad were recently completed. The Company plans to complete, tie-in and bring all five wells on production late in the third quarter, one month later than previously planned.

Drilling operations at the four-well 1-2 North pad are set to commence in the third quarter. Paramount plans to complete all four wells in the fourth quarter and tie-in and bring the wells on production early in 2023, two months later than previously planned.

The Company also plans to commence the drilling of ten wells on two five-well pads (4-2 North and 4-2 South), seven of which are anticipated to be drilled by year-end.

Paramount is bringing onstream additional gas lift compression later this year to support liquids production and continues to build out infrastructure to debottleneck future production.

WAPITI AREA

Wapiti sales volumes and netbacks are summarized below:

| | Q2 2022 | Q1 2022 | % Change | | | | Sales volumes | | | | | | | Natural gas (MMcf/d) | 45.2 | 39.2 | 15 | | | | Condensate and oil (Bbl/d) | 8,965 | 8,802 | 2 | | | | Other NGLs (Bbl/d) | 936 | 792 | 18 | | | | Total (Boe/d) | 17,441 | 16,126 | 8 | | | | % liquids | 57 % | 59 % | | | | | Netback (1) | ($ millions) | ($/Boe) | ($ millions) | ($/Boe) | _Change in $ millions (%) _ | | Natural gas revenue (2) | 28.8 | 6.98 | 19.0 | 5.39 | 52 | | Condensate and oil revenue | 110.4 | 135.36 | 94.7 | 119.49 | 17 | | Other NGLs revenue | 5.5 | 64.30 | 3.7 | 51.67 | 49 | | Royalty and other revenue (3) | 1.3 | – | 10.6 | – | NM | | Petroleum and natural gas sales | 146.0 | 91.94 | 128.0 | 88.20 | 14 | | Royalties | (17.1) | (10.72) | (7.4) | (5.13) | 131 | | Operating expense | (19.9) | (12.56) | (18.5) | (12.69) | 8 | | Transportation and NGLs processing | (6.9) | (4.35) | (7.1) | (4.92) | (3) | | | 102.1 | 64.31 | 95.0 | 65.46 | 7 |

| (1) | "Netback" is a Non-GAAP financial measure. When presented on a $/Boe or $/Mcf basis, each of the components of Netback is a supplementary financial measure and Netback is a non-GAAP ratio. Refer to the "Specified Financial Measures" section for more information on these measures. | | (2) | Natural gas revenue presented as $/Mcf. | | (3) | Second quarter royalty and other revenue includes $1.3 million (first quarter 2022: $10.6 million) in respect of a business interruption insurance claim. Refer to Note 12 in the unaudited Interim Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements as at and for the three and six months ended June 30, 2022. | | NM means not meaningful. | |

Second quarter 2022 sales volumes at Wapiti averaged 17,441 Boe/d (57% liquids) compared to 16,126 Boe/d (59% liquids) in the first quarter, with the increase in sales volumes reflecting new production from the eight-well 8-22 pad that came onstream in early June. Wapiti was shut-in or curtailed for the equivalent of approximately 16 days in the second quarter due to a planned turnaround as well as unplanned outages and curtailments at the Wapiti Plant and associated infrastructure, impacting quarterly average production by an estimated 3,800 Boe/d. Approximately 2,500 Boe/d of this impact was due to the unplanned outages and curtailments.

All eight wells on the 8-22 pad came on production in the quarter. The 8-22 pad is the Company's first where all wells were configured as monobores. All-in drilling, completion, equipping and tie-in ("DCET") costs averaged $7.3 million . Initial production results have been encouraging, averaging gross peak 30-day production per well of 1,472 Boe/d (4.2 MMcf/d of shale gas and 778 Bbl/d of NGLs) with an average CGR of 187 Bbl/MMcf. (1)

The drilling of the eight-well 6-32 pad was completed in the second quarter. With completion operations recently finished, equip and tie-in activities have commenced and are expected to run through the third quarter with four wells anticipated to come onstream in September and the remaining four wells to come onstream in the fourth quarter.

| | | | (1) | Production measured at the wellhead. Natural gas sales volumes are lower by approximately 12% and liquids sales volumes are lower by approximately 2% due to shrinkage. Excludes days when the wells did not produce. The production rates and volumes stated are over a short period of time and, therefore, are not necessarily indicative of average daily production, long-term performance or of ultimate recovery from the wells. CGR means condensate to gas ratio and is calculated by dividing raw wellhead liquids volumes by raw wellhead natural gas volumes. See "Oil and Gas Measures and Definitions" in the Advisories section. |

Drilling operations at the eight-well 16-15 pad commenced in the second quarter. The Company plans to complete, tie-in and bring on production two wells by year-end 2022 with the remaining six wells to come onstream in early 2023.

Paramount also plans to commence the drilling of the eight well 8-15 pad in the fourth quarter, with the drilling of the first four wells to be completed by the end of the year.

The performance of the 9-22 pad that was brought on production in late 2021 and early 2022, as well as a number of legacy wells, is contributing to the Company's higher production expectations at Wapiti in the second half of 2022.

Paramount now anticipates achieving targeted plateau production of 30,000 Boe/d at Wapiti by the end of the year.