Nutrien Ltd. press release

Nutrien Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results

2026-11-04

TSX - Toronto Stock Exchange · Corporate Finance

Continued operational excellence supports higher cash generated from operations

Increased cash returns to shareholders

Completed strategic review of our Phosphate business

All amounts are in US dollars, except as otherwise noted

Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced today its third quarter 2026 results, with net earnings of $0.29 billion ($0.60 diluted net earnings per share). Third quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA 1 was $1.31 billion and adjusted net earnings per share 1 was $0.61. In the first nine months of 2026, we generated net earnings of $1.65 billion and adjusted EBITDA 1 of $4.85 billion.

“Nutrien delivered structural earnings growth and increased cash returns to shareholders in the first nine months of 2026, supported by record potash sales volumes, strong proprietary products gross margins and a continued focus on operational excellence,” commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s President and CEO. “We have taken decisive actions on our portfolio optimization initiatives that will enhance earnings quality and support long-term growth in free cash flow per share.”

Highlights 2 :

Retail adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.44 billion in the first nine months of 2026 due to higher proprietary products gross margins and a strong livestock market in Australia, partially offset by lower crop nutrient sales volumes and higher fuel costs.

Potash adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.97 billion in the first nine months of 2026 due to higher global benchmarks and strong operational and supply chain execution that supported record sales volumes.

Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA decreased to $1.61 billion in the first nine months of 2026 due to lower sales volumes, partially offset by higher global nitrogen benchmarks and lower natural gas costs. Production from our low-cost North American nitrogen plants was consistent with our plan, including execution of planned turnarounds at three nitrogen sites.

Cash provided by operating activities increased by 17 percent in the first nine months of 2026. We returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of 2026 through dividends and share repurchases, including a 36 percent increase in share repurchases. We repurchased approximately $83 million of common shares in the fourth quarter as of November 3, 2026.

| | | 1 This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section. All references to per share amounts pertain to diluted net earnings per share, unless otherwise noted. | | 2 Our discussion of highlights set out on this page is a comparison of the results for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 to the results for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, unless otherwise noted. | | |

Strategic Actions:

Consistent with our aim to simplify our portfolio and focus on core assets that enhance earnings quality and free cash flow, we completed a comprehensive review of strategic alternatives for our Phosphate business. Following this review, we have determined the optimal path in the current environment is to retain and further optimize our Aurora and integrated upgrade facilities, while shutting down operations at our White Springs facility in the second quarter of 2027. We believe these actions best position Nutrien to enhance shareholder value.

Aurora and Upgrade Facilities

We received strong interest and a number of non-binding bids as part of the strategic review process; however, following a careful evaluation of the alternatives, we concluded that the proposals received did not adequately reflect the long-term value of the assets.

Aurora is a world-class facility with approximately 1.2 million tonnes of P₂O₅ capacity, a high-quality resource base, long reserve life and one of the industry's most diversified phosphate product portfolios.

We will continue to build on the strengths of Aurora and our integrated upgrade facilities through operational excellence initiatives that support higher operating rates and product mix optimization that further enhance margins and free cash flow.

White Springs Facility

We have made the decision to shut down operations at our White Springs facility in the second quarter of 2027. Management determined this to be the optimal path as the White Springs mine approaches the end of its economically recoverable reserve life, which has resulted in increasing operating costs and capital requirements.

We expect an improvement in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow as a result of this decision, as lower operating costs and reduced capital requirements more than offset lower sales and shutdown-related costs. In 2026, White Springs is expected to account for approximately 20 percent of our Phosphate sales and 28 percent of operating segment cost of goods sold. The closure is expected to reduce annual sustaining capital expenditures and lease payments by approximately $50 million.

Management’s Discussion and Analysis

The following management’s discussion and analysis (“MD&A”) is the responsibility of management and is dated as of November 4, 2026. The Board of Directors (“Board”) of Nutrien carries out its responsibility for review of this disclosure principally through its Audit Committee, composed entirely of independent directors. The Audit Committee reviews and, prior to its publication, approves this disclosure pursuant to the authority delegated to it by the Board. The term “Nutrien” refers to Nutrien Ltd. and the terms “we”, “us”, “our”, “Nutrien” and “the Company” refer to Nutrien and, as applicable, Nutrien and its direct and indirect subsidiaries on a consolidated basis. Additional information relating to Nutrien (which, except as otherwise noted, is not incorporated by reference herein), including our annual report dated February 19, 2026 (“2025 Annual Report”), which includes our annual audited consolidated financial statements (“annual financial statements”) and MD&A, and our annual information form dated February 19, 2026, each for the year ended December 31, 2025, can be found on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov . No update is provided to the disclosure in our 2025 annual MD&A except for material information since the date of our annual MD&A. The Company is a foreign private issuer under the rules and regulations of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”).

This MD&A is based on, and should be read in conjunction with, the Company’s unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as at and for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026 (“interim financial statements”) based on International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board and prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standard (“IAS”) 34 “Interim Financial Reporting”, unless otherwise noted. This MD&A contains certain non-GAAP financial measures and ratios and forward-looking statements, which are described in the “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” and the “Forward-Looking Statements” sections, respectively.

Market Outlook and Guidance

Agriculture and Retail Markets

Global agricultural fundamentals continue to be supported by robust grain and oilseed demand. Regional variability in weather conditions, including ongoing El Niño impacts, and geopolitical uncertainty are contributing to increased volatility in crop production and trade flows. Tightening global supply and demand fundamentals are expected to support grower economics in 2027.

In North America, fertilizer demand is expected to be supported by the need to replenish nutrients removed from recent strong crop production and improved prospective crop economics. Following a delayed start to harvest in some geographies, we assume the recent acceleration in the pace of field activity will support a normal fall fertilizer application window in 2026.

In Australia, favorable crop conditions and strong livestock economics are supporting grower demand for retail products and services.

In Brazil, planting conditions have supported expectations for stable to modestly higher soybean and corn planted area. While forward crop economics have improved, farmer purchasing activity continues to be affected by constrained credit availability and weaker farmer balance sheets.

Crop Nutrient Markets

Global potash market fundamentals remain constructive, supported by favorable affordability and healthy demand in major importing regions. We have maintained our forecast for global potash shipments of 74 to 77 million tonnes in 2026. We expect continued global potash demand growth in line with historical consumption trends and forecast global potash shipments of 75 to 79 million tonnes in 2027.

Global nitrogen market fundamentals are expected to remain tight heading into 2027, driven by ongoing trade flow disruptions, production outages, import demand from key consuming regions such as India and Brazil, and elevated energy prices. Recent market dynamics have been impacted by just-in-time purchasing, Indian tenders and higher Chinese export quotas.

Global phosphate market fundamentals continue to be affected by trade flow disruptions, constrained sulfur feedstock availability and elevated costs, which have placed unsustainable pressure on phosphate producer margins and have resulted in reduced global operating rates.

Financial and Operational Guidance

Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance revised to $1.72 to $1.85 billion, primarily reflecting lower crop nutrients gross margins in the third quarter of 2026. We expect a stronger North American fall fertilizer application season in 2026 due to improved prospective crop economics and assume a normal application window compared to the weather shortened period in 2025.

Potash sales volume guidance increased to 14.3 to 14.8 million tonnes due to the continued strength of global demand and the range is consistent with our historical share of global shipments.

Nitrogen sales volume guidance increased to 9.3 to 9.7 million tonnes and is supported by planned reliability improvements and debottlenecking initiatives. The range reflects higher expected ammonia operating rates in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the prior year.

Phosphate sales volume guidance lowered to 2.40 to 2.55 million tonnes due to a deferral in customer demand and lower operating rates at White Springs.

Total capital expenditures guidance lowered to $1.95 to $2.00 billion reflecting a focus on capital efficiency and structurally growing free cash flow.

Effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings guidance was increased to 25.5 to 27.0 percent reflecting a shift in geographic earnings mix.

All guidance expectations, including those noted above, are outlined in the table below. Refer to page 33 of our 2025 Annual Report for anticipated fertilizer pricing and natural gas price sensitivities relating to adjusted EBITDA (consolidated) and adjusted net earnings per share.

| | 2026 Guidance Ranges 1 as of | | | | | | | | | | | November 4, 2026 | | | August 5, 2026 | | | | | | | ($ billions, except as otherwise noted) | Low | | | High | | | Low | | High | | Retail adjusted EBITDA | 1.72 | | | 1.85 | | | 1.75 | | 1.95 | | Potash sales volumes (million tonnes) 2 | 14.3 | | | 14.8 | | | 14.2 | | 14.8 | | Nitrogen sales volumes (million tonnes) 2 | 9.3 | | | 9.7 | | | 9.2 | | 9.7 | | Phosphate sales volumes (million tonnes) 2 | 2.40 | | | 2.55 | | | 2.40 | | 2.60 | | Depreciation and amortization | 2.40 | | | 2.45 | | | 2.40 | | 2.50 | | Finance costs | 0.70 | | | 0.75 | | | 0.65 | | 0.75 | | Effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings (%) 3 | 25.5 | | | 27.0 | | | 24.0 | | 26.0 | | Capital expenditures 4 | 1.95 | | | 2.00 | | | 1.95 | | 2.05 | | 1 See the “Forward-Looking Statements” section. | | | | | | | | | | | 2 Manufactured product only. | | | | | | | | | | | 3 This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section. | | | | | | | | | | | 4 Comprised of sustaining capital expenditures, investing capital expenditures and mine development and pre-stripping capital expenditures, which are supplementary financial measures. See the “Other Financial Measures” section. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

Consolidated Results

| | Three Months Ended September 30 | | Nine Months Ended September 30 | | | | | | | | | | | | ($ millions, except as otherwise noted) | 2026 | | | 2025 | | % Change | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | % Change | | Sales | 6,064 | | | 6,007 | | 1 | | 22,922 | | | 21,545 | | 6 | | Gross margin | 1,860 | | | 1,964 | | (5) | | 6,757 | | | 6,459 | | 5 | | Expenses | 1,199 | | | 1,157 | | 4 | | 3,959 | | | 3,644 | | 9 | | Net earnings | 288 | | | 469 | | (39) | | 1,649 | | | 1,717 | | (4) | | Adjusted EBITDA 1 | 1,310 | | | 1,431 | | (8) | | 4,845 | | | 4,769 | | 2 | | Diluted net earnings per share (dollars) 2 | 0.60 | | | 0.96 | | (38) | | 3.40 | | | 3.48 | | (2) | | Adjusted net earnings per share (dollars) 1, 2 | 0.61 | | | 0.97 | | (37) | | 3.73 | | | 3.72 | | ‐ | | 1 This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2 All references to per share amounts pertain to diluted net earnings per share, unless otherwise noted. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

Adjusted EBITDA increased in the first nine months of 2026, primarily due to higher global fertilizer benchmarks and record Potash sales volumes, partially offset by reduced Nitrogen sales volumes and higher sulfur costs. Net earnings decreased in the first nine months of 2026, primarily due to the same factors impacting adjusted EBITDA and higher finance costs and income taxes as compared to the same period of 2025. Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA decreased in the third quarter of 2026, primarily due to lower Phosphate and Nitrogen earnings compared to the same period in 2025.

Segment Results

Our discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026 to the results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, unless otherwise noted.

Retail

| | Three Months Ended September 30 | | Nine Months Ended September 30 | | | | | | | | | | | | ($ millions, except as otherwise noted) | 2026 | | | 2025 | | % Change | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | % Change | | Sales | 3,443 | | | 3,427 | | ‐ | | 15,353 | | | 14,476 | | 6 | | Cost of goods sold | 2,532 | | | 2,505 | | 1 | | 11,596 | | | 10,850 | | 7 | | Gross margin | 911 | | | 922 | | (1) | | 3,757 | | | 3,626 | | 4 | | Adjusted EBITDA 1 | 203 | | | 230 | | (12) | | 1,442 | | | 1,425 | | 1 | | 1 See Note 2 to the interim financial statements. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

Retail adjusted EBITDA increased in the first nine months of 2026 due to higher proprietary products gross margins and a strong livestock market in Australia, partially offset by lower crop nutrient sales volumes and higher fuel costs. Retail adjusted EBITDA decreased in the third quarter of 2026 mainly due to lower crop nutrients gross margins. Proprietary products gross margins were impacted by a shorter plant health season in North America and weather-related impacts in Brazil.

| | Three Months Ended September 30 | | Nine Months Ended September 30 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sales | | Gross Margin | | Sales | | Gross Margin | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ($ millions) | 2026 | | | 2025 | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | Crop nutrients | 1,188 | | | 1,188 | | 175 | | | 220 | | 6,212 | | | 5,773 | | 1,120 | | | 1,136 | | Crop protection products | 1,519 | | | 1,536 | | 413 | | | 399 | | 5,411 | | | 5,174 | | 1,346 | | | 1,266 | | Seed | 136 | | | 156 | | 19 | | | 24 | | 1,976 | | | 1,966 | | 345 | | | 360 | | Services and other | 263 | | | 258 | | 186 | | | 178 | | 746 | | | 690 | | 586 | | | 531 | | Merchandise | 266 | | | 222 | | 47 | | | 34 | | 780 | | | 649 | | 132 | | | 109 | | Nutrien Financial | 87 | | | 89 | | 87 | | | 89 | | 312 | | | 294 | | 312 | | | 294 | | Nutrien Financial elimination 1 | (16) | | | (22) | | (16) | | | (22) | | (84) | | | (70) | | (84) | | | (70) | | Total | 3,443 | | | 3,427 | | 911 | | | 922 | | 15,353 | | | 14,476 | | 3,757 | | | 3,626 | | 1 Represents elimination of the interest and service fees charged by Nutrien Financial to Retail branches. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

Crop nutrients sales increased in the first nine months of 2026 due to higher selling prices. Sales were flat and gross margin decreased in the third quarter of 2026 due to lower international sales volumes and reduced gross margin per tonne, reflecting the impact of the sell through of higher cost nitrogen inventory.

Crop protection products sales and gross margin increased in the first nine months of 2026 due to higher proprietary products sales and gross margins. Sales and gross margin in the third quarter of 2026 were supported by increased demand in Australia, partially offset by lower sales volumes impacted by a shorter plant health season in North America.

Seed gross margin decreased in the third quarter and first nine months of 2026 due to product mix shifts and lower sales volumes in Brazil driven by strategic actions and weather-related impacts.

Services and other sales and gross margin increased in the third quarter and first nine months of 2026 due to a strong livestock market in Australia.

| Supplemental Data | Three Months Ended September 30 | | Nine Months Ended September 30 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Gross Margin | | % of Product Line 1 | | Gross Margin | | % of Product Line 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ($ millions, except as otherwise noted) | 2026 | | | 2025 | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | Proprietary products | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Crop nutrients | 73 | | | 88 | | 42 | | | 40 | | 401 | | | 385 | | 36 | | | 34 | | Crop protection products | 150 | | | 161 | | 36 | | | 41 | | 552 | | | 460 | | 41 | | | 36 | | Seed | 1 | | | 15 | | 5 | | | 57 | | 108 | | | 130 | | 31 | | | 36 | | Merchandise | 7 | | | 4 | | 13 | | | 12 | | 13 | | | 10 | | 9 | | | 9 | | Total | 231 | | | 268 | | 25 | | | 29 | | 1,074 | | | 985 | | 29 | | | 27 | | 1 Represents percentage of proprietary product margins over total product line gross margin. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

| | Three Months Ended September 30 | | Nine Months Ended September 30 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sales Volumes (tonnes – thousands) | | Gross Margin / Tonne (dollars) | | Sales Volumes (tonnes – thousands) | | Gross Margin / Tonne (dollars) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | 2026 | | | 2025 | | Crop nutrients | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | North America | 1,026 | | | 1,019 | | 141 | | | 158 | | 6,421 | | | 6,902 | | 154 | | | 145 | | International | 649 | | | 834 | | 47 | | | 71 | | 2,554 | | | 2,732 | | 52 | | | 51 | | Total | 1,675 | | | 1,853 | | 105 | | | 119 | | 8,975 | | | 9,634 | | 125 | | | 118 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

| (percentages) | | September 30, 2026 | | | December 31, 2025 | | Financial performance measures 1, 2 | | | | | | | Cash operating coverage ratio | | 63 | | | 62 | | Average working capital to sales | | 24 | | | 22 | | 1 Rolling four quarters. | | | | | | | 2 These are non-GAAP financial measures. See the “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section. | | | | | |

Potash

| | Three Months Ended September 30 | | Nine Months Ended September 30 | | | | | | | | | | | | ($ millions, except as otherwise noted) | 2026 | | | 2025 | % Change | | 2026 | | | 2025 | % Change | | | | Net sales | 1,121 | | | 1,122 | | ‐ | | 3,100 | | | 2,857 | | 9 | | Cost of goods sold | 474 | | | 437 | | 8 | | 1,342 | | | 1,257 | | 7 | | Gross margin | 647 | | | 685 | | (6) | | 1,758 | | | 1,600 | | 10 | | Adjusted EBITDA 1 | 730 | | | 733 | | ‐ | | 1,966 | | | 1,809 | | 9 | | 1 See Note 2 to the interim financial statements. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |